歐洲央行關鍵利率「連四凍」，上修經濟成長預期，通膨穩定中長期目標

根據歐洲央行(ECB)在2025年12月18日發布的貨幣政策決策與記者會資料，歐洲央行管理委員會(Governing Council)決定維持三項主要的歐洲央行利率不變。此次利率決策為連續第4次保持不變，符合市場普遍的預期。歐洲央行重申，最新的評估結果再次確認，通膨應能在中期穩定在2%的目標水準。

關鍵利率與貨幣政策基調

歐洲央行今日決議維持三大關鍵利率不變。其中，存款機制利率(Deposit Facility Rate)維持在2.00%；主要再融資利率(Main Refinancing Rate)維持在2.15%；而邊際貸款利率(Marginal Lending Rate)則維持在2.40%。

理事會強調，將採取數據導向和逐次會議決定的方式來確定適當的貨幣政策立場。利率決定將基於對通膨前景和其周邊風險的評估，並考量新進的經濟和金融數據、潛在通膨的動態，以及貨幣政策傳導的強度。歐洲央行並未預先承諾任何特定的利率路徑。

通膨與經濟成長預測全面上修

歐元系統工作人員的最新預測顯示，經濟成長預期較9月份的預測有所上修，主要受到國內需求驅動。

在經濟成長方面，歐元區國內生產毛額(GDP)成長預計2025年為1.4%，2026年為1.2%，2027年為1.4%，並預計2028年維持在1.4%。

在通膨方面，最新的預測顯示，總體通膨(headline inflation)預計2025年平均為2.1%，2026年為1.9%，2027年為1.8%，預計2028年將回到2.0%的目標。

特別是排除能源和食物後的核心通膨，預計2025年平均為2.4%，2026年為2.2%，2027年為1.9%，預計2028年為2.0%。工作人員將2026年的核心通膨預期上調，主要原因在於預期服務通膨下降的速度將更為緩慢。例如，11月份的服務通膨上升至3.5%，高於9月份的3.2%。

經濟韌性與薪資趨勢

歐元區經濟呈現韌性，第3季成長0.3%，主要是因為消費與投資有所成長。勞動市場表現穩健，10月份的失業率接近歷史低點，維持在6.4%。

歐洲央行認為，國內需求是未來幾年經濟成長的主要引擎。實質收入預計將進一步成長，加上儲蓄率將從相對較高的水準逐漸下降，這些因素都將支撐消費。

雖然潛在通膨指標在最近幾個月變化不大，且與中期2%的目標一致，但薪資成長是關注焦點。員工報酬的年增率呈現4.0%。不過，前瞻性指標，像是歐洲央行的薪資追蹤器和薪資預期調查，暗示薪資成長在未來幾季將會放緩，並預計在2026年底穩定在略低於3%的水準。

市場反應與理事會內部分歧

自歐洲央行上次會議以來，市場利率普遍有所上升。對企業的銀行貸款利率自夏季以來保持穩定，10月份維持在3.5%。新抵押貸款的平均利率在10月份也穩定在3.3%。

儘管理事會尚未對未來利率路徑提供明確指引，但投資人已經開始押注，歐洲央行最快可能在2026年首次升息，排除了進一步寬鬆(降息)的可能性。

此外，理事會內部對於下次利率調整的趨勢開始出現明顯的緊張關係和分歧。部分官員認為，鑑於經濟表現意外強勁，已不再認為需要進一步寬鬆，並傾向於認為下次調整無論何時發生，都可能是升息。

歐洲央行管理委員會表示，隨時準備在其職權範圍內調整所有工具，以確保通膨能夠在中期穩定在2%的目標，並維護貨幣政策傳導的順暢運作。

Monetary policy decisions (18 December 2025)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Its updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term.

The new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028.

The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

圖資來源：歐洲央行(新聞發布)