歐洲央行維持利率不變，中東戰事推升通膨風險

根據歐洲中央銀行(歐洲央行/ECB)在2026年3月19日發布的資料，歐洲央行決議將3大關鍵利率維持不變。其中，存款機制利率維持在2%，主要再融資操作利率與邊際貸款機制利率分別維持在2.15%與2.4%。這項決策完全符合市場預期，同時當局也強調，將致力確保通貨膨脹率在中期內穩定回到2%的目標水準。

面對當前全球局勢，特別是中東戰事帶來的衝擊，歐洲央行對未來的經濟展望進行大幅度修正。根據最新的幕僚預測，中東衝突導致能源價格面臨較大的上行風險，進而推升近期的通貨膨脹壓力。因此，歐洲央行將2026年的總體通膨率預估值，從去年12月預測的1.9%大幅上調至2.6%，並預期2027年與2028年的通膨率將分別落在2.0%與2.1%。若排除波動較大的能源與食品價格，核心通膨率預計2026年將達2.3%，隨後在2027年降至2.2%、2028年降至2.1%。通膨上揚的主要原因在於戰爭推升的能源價格，這些成本逐步反映在整體經濟的各個層面。

在經濟表現方面，受到戰事引發的全球大宗商品市場波動、實質所得受壓以及企業與消費者信心波動的影響，歐洲央行將2026年歐元區的國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率預測，從先前估計的1.2%下修至0.9%。不過，當局預期2027年與2028年的經濟成長率將逐步復甦，分別回升至1.3%與1.4%。儘管短期經濟面臨逆風，但當前的失業率仍處於歷史低位，加上民間企業與家庭的資產負債表保持穩健，以及政府在國防與基礎建設上的公共支出增加，皆為歐元區經濟提供強而有力的支撐。

針對貨幣政策的後續走向，歐洲央行總裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在記者會中明確表示，決策團隊並未預先承諾特定的利率路徑，而是將全面延續依賴數據以及逐次會議檢視的決策模式。這意味著未來的利率決策將高度取決於後續發布的經濟與金融數據，特別是通膨前景、潛在的通膨動態以及貨幣政策傳導的強度。此外，拉加德強調，儘管能源價格衝擊帶來通膨壓力，但中長期的通膨預期指標目前依然穩固停留在2%附近，且近期企業利潤穩定恢復、勞動市場強韌，薪資成長幅度也呈現放緩趨勢，這些因素皆有助於通膨率最終回歸目標。

在金融穩定與市場風險方面，歐洲央行副總裁戴金多斯(Luis de Guindos)特別提到私募信貸市場快速成長所伴隨的潛在風險。相較於美國，歐洲銀行業對私募信貸的曝險規模雖然較小，但該領域存在缺乏透明度、資產估值困難以及流動性錯配等問題，未來仍需持續密切監控其與傳統銀行體系之間的連結與潛在的蔓延風險。

綜合來看，歐洲央行在此次會議中展現出冷靜且堅定的態度。雖然外部地緣政治衝突為經濟成長與物價穩定帶來雙重挑戰，但央行強調自身已準備好充沛的政策工具，隨時可進行調整，以確保歐元區經濟能夠順利度過此次高度不確定的時期。

Monetary policy decisions 19 March 2026

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. It is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices. Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.

The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty. Inflation has been at around the 2% target, longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters. The incoming information in the period ahead will help the Governing Council assess how the war will affect the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it. The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation, and its data-dependent approach will help it set monetary policy as appropriate.

The new ECB staff projections exceptionally incorporate information up to 11 March, a later cut-off date than usual. In the baseline, headline inflation is seen to average 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up compared with the December projections, especially for 2026. This is because energy prices will be higher owing to the war in the Middle East. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.3% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. This is also higher than the path in the December projections, mainly owing to higher energy prices feeding into inflation excluding energy and food. Staff expect economic growth to average 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. This implies a downward revision, especially for 2026, reflecting the global effects of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence. At the same time, low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, and public spending on defence and infrastructure should continue to underpin growth.

In line with the Governing Council’s monetary policy strategy commitment to incorporate risks and uncertainty into its decision-making, staff also assessed how the war in the Middle East could affect economic growth and inflation under some alternative illustrative scenarios. These scenarios will be published with the staff projections on the ECB’s website. The scenario analysis suggests that a prolonged disruption in the supply of oil and gas would result in inflation being above, and growth being below, the baseline projections. The implications for medium-term inflation depend crucially on the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and more persistent energy shock.

The Governing Council will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

圖資來源：歐洲央行(記者會)