通膨風險升溫，歐洲央行維持基準利率不變

根據歐洲央行在2026年4月30日發布的資料，歐洲央行管理委員會正式宣布維持3大關鍵利率不變。其中，存款機制利率維持在2.00%，主要再融資操作利率保持在2.15%，邊際貸款機制利率則停留在2.40%。雖然近期的經濟數據與歐洲央行先前對通貨膨脹前景的評估大致相符，但當局明確指出，通貨膨脹的上升風險與經濟成長的下降風險皆已加劇。

歐洲央行強調，貨幣政策的設定目的在確保通貨膨脹率能於中期內穩定回歸至2%的目標水準。然而，中東地區的戰事引發能源價格急遽攀升，推動國際原油價格創下4年來的新高紀錄。這不僅推高物價，也對整體的經濟信心造成沉重壓力。戰爭對中期物價與經濟活動的影響程度，將取決於能源價格衝擊的強度與持續時間。如果戰事持續且能源價格長期居高不下，對整體通貨膨脹與經濟發展的衝擊將會更強烈。

相關數據顯示，歐元區在4月份的通貨膨脹率跳升至3%，明顯高於歐洲央行設定的2%目標，且市場普遍預期未來還有進一步上漲的空間。面對物價飆升的威脅，金融市場目前強烈預期歐洲央行即將採取行動，預測在6月與7月將會各升息1次，並且在秋季至少會再追加1次升息。市場人士分析，由於歐洲央行在2022年曾因升息步伐過於緩慢而遭受批評，此次勢必渴望迅速採取行動，平息任何可能引發物價失控的螺旋效應。

在資產購買計畫(APP)與疫情期間緊急資產購買計畫(PEPP)方面，由於歐洲央行停止將到期證券的本金進行再投資，這些投資組合的規模正以可預測的步調穩定縮減中。歐洲央行也重申，當局準備好在授權範圍內調整所有工具，並具備傳導保護機制(TPI)來對抗不合理且失序的市場動態，確保貨幣政策能順利傳導至所有歐元區國家。

Monetary policy decisions (30 April 2026)

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. While the incoming information has been broadly consistent with the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the inflation outlook, the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified. The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.

The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment. The implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock and the scale of its indirect and second-round effects. The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.

The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty. The euro area entered this period of surging energy prices with inflation at around the 2% target, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly.

The Governing Council will closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.

Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.